That people have been moving out of Democrat strongholds and migrating to red states is no secret, the trend has been apparent for a number of years. Now we can finally see the damage politically. The census has revealed that for the first time ever California has lost a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The overall shift in seats heavily favors states that are traditionally red, creating an opportunity for Republicans in those states to gain ground.
More seats for Texas
Texas will gain two new seats, representing the largest shift which has come from the census results. Other winners include Florida, North Carolina, and Montana.
The states which have lost representatives are mostly blue. In addition to California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, West Virginia, and Ohio all lost one seat.
For the most part then the trend is the well known movement of people from Democrat states with rising taxes and crime to red states with lower tax rates and more business friendly policies.
California and New York have been hit particularly hard by the internal migrations of Americans away from the Democrat coastal strongholds.
Theoretically this shift presents great opportunities for Republicans in the red states to pick up more seats in a closely contested House. Many Republicans are indeed optimistic about the weakening of California in favor of Texas.
Still, Republicans will need to remember that the problem with people coming from Democrat states is that they are coming from Democrat states. All will be for naught if these transplants continue to vote for the same policies in their new home states.
Democrats head south
The population and economy of Texas has thrived with the movement of businesses and people from California and other blue states. Simultaneously, however, Democrats have made massive strides in contesting the once solidly red state.
Many of these Californians and New Yorkers tend to vote for the same policies and leaders from which they fled. The unfortunate fact is that the southern states are attracting these people primarily for financial, rather than cultural, reasons.
The danger of attracting too many of these transplants can be seen in the unfortunate case of Georgia, which is rapidly going through the process of becoming a purple or even blue state.
The shift in seats away from California will be meaningless if the transplants work to elect Democrats in their new home states and reinstate the same disastrous policies from which they escaped.
Republicans will have to be extremely cautious and strategically adept to prevent these new seats from falling into the hands of Democrats and serving California causes from their new red state homes.
There is certainly an opportunity for Republicans to gain ground with the new shift in seats following the census, but the party must be prepared to dodge the risks that come with them.