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Despite California having more Republicans than any other state in the union, this unfortunately does not guarantee that one of them will be moving forward into the second round of voting for a U.S. Senate seat.
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies conducted a poll recently and co-sponsored by The Times which showed two Democrats appearing likely to face off next year when it comes time for Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s successor.
This is six months before the March 5 primary – and even with former Dodger and Padres legend Steve Garvey possibly running as a prominent Republican, nothing changed according to this poll.
The LA Times reported that two Democratic candidates are leading the race with Rep. Adam Schiff enjoying support from 20% of likely voters while Rep. Katie Porter is not far behind at 17%.
Rep Barbara Lee from Oakland is another well-known Democratic challenger but she currently polls at 7%.
Meanwhile, both Steve Garvey and Republican businessman James Bradley have 7% each while GOP candidate Eric Early has 5%.
A third or so of those polled were unsure who they would vote for if given the chance right away.
2024 California Senate Primary Poll
(D) Adam Schiff 20%
(D) Katie Porter 17%
(D) Barbara Lee 7%
(R) Steve Garvey 7%
(R) James Bradley 7%
(R) Eric Early 5%
(D) Lexi Reese 1%
—
Undecided 36%@UCBerkeley | 3,113 LV | Aug. 24-29https://t.co/KbP3SkU7VK pic.twitter.com/OzLKdnysoN— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 7, 2023
Whoever receives enough votes during the primary election regardless of their party affiliation moves on to general elections however, there are multiple factors at play here which further complicate matters: namely, how many Republicans decide to enter into the race?
If there is an abundance then they could divide up their own supporters’ votes making it harder for any single candidate to make it through unless they’ve done extensive campaigning prior to primaries taking place.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Times-Berkeley poll and a longtime California pollster noted that “You can change [the outcome] with a lot of campaigning” but based on what we know right now “they don’t appear to be that competitive” compared to current Democratic frontrunners in terms of getting into top two positions.
Despite spending more time in spotlight during her campaign period Barbara Lee remains less well-known than Reps Porter and Schiff – 50% surveyed had no opinion about her whatsoever.
Even though she appears as only Black candidate in race she’s still receiving much less support from potential Black voters with 16% backing her compared to 21% voting for Porter and 30% backing Schiff.
One factor yet unknown is whether Feinstein will be able complete term or not due to her growing number of health concerns, leading many to call for her resignation.
