Despite most polls showing that former Vice President Biden has a double digit lead over President Trump nationally, and smaller leads over him in battleground states, Biden’s campaign manager warned supporters on Twitter that the race is “a lot closer.”
“Early voting is already underway in many states. Millions of voters have already cast their ballots. But there is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer,” Dillon tweeted.
Now: Early voting is already underway in many states. Millions of voters have already cast their ballots. But there is still a long way to go in this campaign, and we think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer. (4/?)
— Jen O'Malley Dillon (@jomalleydillon) October 15, 2020
According to reporting from left-wing news outlet The Hill, “Biden leads by 9.3 points nationally in the RealClearPolitics average with under three weeks to go before the election. Analysts say Trump could lose the national vote by about 4 points and still pull off a victory in the Electoral College.”
In 2016, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by 3.2 points nationally leading up to Election Day, and won the popular vote by 2.1 points.
In all six of the core battleground states, Joe Biden leads in the RealClearPolitics average. His biggest leads are in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where he is leading by 6 points or more. The presidential race is closer in Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida.
According to The Hill, “If the 2016 map stays the same but Biden wins back Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he’ll win the White House. Biden is also running close to Trump in states the president won easily in 2016, such as Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio.”
The Biden campaign seems to be projecting uncertainty about the candidate’s chances in the election, despite all of the polls. “The next few weeks are going to be hard,” Dillon said.