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Democrat pollsters don’t know what is going to happen in November. Trump’s appeal has become difficult to measure. It doesn’t help that people don’t want to talk to them anymore. The Democrat lead in the House was supposed to increase. It’s done the reverse instead. Suddenly the top Democrat polls are less than reliable. Normally they’re in competition with each other. Now they’re collaborating.
People not sure about pollsters
Kamala Harris appeared to have caught up with Trump but appearances can be deceiving, with pollsters wondering if her surge was real. And that even if it was real, Trump still has advantages.
Margie Omero is a partner in the Democrat polling firm GBAO Strategies. She said, “It’s still a very tough race, and that feels consistent with everything we know.”
Navigator Research found Trump and Harris tied across swing states. One of the questions that tends to favor Trump is he appears to be a strong leader.
Americans not talking to pollsters
The industry may be getting errors regarding Trump’s popularity. He was underestimated in both 2016 and 2020.
Nick Gourevitch is a partner at Global Strategy Group. He didn’t think anybody could give accurate information now.
“I spent a ton of time and analysis trying to dig into those problems. And I feel much better educated about those problems. I don’t think there’s any pollster in America who can sit here and say that they’re 100 percent sure that they fixed any issues in polling. I think that would be silly.”
An experiment was conducted in Wisconsin for a month using different poling methods to see if results changed from prior strategies. Pollsters are learning.
Americans are more aware politically
This can be a problem for results for presidential races. It generally doesn’t matter for low turnout elections.
As a result, it was reported that “most elected and professional Democrats” are “trying to temper their enthusiasm” at the DNC. Pollster reliability has been a problem since 2020.
The industry knows of the problem and doesn’t know how to fix it. John Anzalone is a pollster on the Biden team since 2020. “Every year, we’ve had different curveballs. This is a difficult industry. Something’s gonna happen in 2024. You and I, right now, don’t know what that is.”
