Many Democrats are retiring from office in November, to the tune of 32 out of 49 in the House. Pelosi maybe up against a wall. The retirement rate of 11.9% is the highest since 2014. Pelosi won’t play if she can’t win. If she isn’t in the majority, she may retire as well. The mainstream media is conceding that their side may lose power. A couple news outlets have posted signs they’re worried and well they should be.
Democrats held onto power too tightly
So it slips through their fingers. Ballotpedia noted,
“The 55 retiring members include 32 Democrats and 23 Republicans, accounting for 11.9% of the Democratic caucus and 8.8% of the Republican caucus. The 11.9% retirement rate among Democrats is the largest since 2014 when 8.5% of Democrats did not run for re-election. The 8.8% retirement rate among Republicans is the second-lowest since 2014. The only year with a lower retirement rate was 2016 when 8.6% of Republicans retired. Democrats had their lowest retirement rates out of the past five cycles in 2018 and 2020, when 7.4% and 3.4%, respectively, of the caucus, did not seek re-election. Republicans had their highest retirement rates out of the past five cycles in those years, with 12.6% of the caucus retiring in 2018 and 11.5% in 2020.”
Among the titles included were the CNN report, “Could House Democrats lose 70 seats this fall?” Newsweek lamented, “Will Democrats Lose in the Midterms? Probably.” The Washington Post tried to spin it to look on the bright side down the road so “losing the midterms isn’t the worst thing for Democrats.”
Democrats would lose
Tim Persico is the executive director of the DCCC. He shared unpleasant data.
“We are not afraid of this data … We’re not trying to hide this. If [Democrats] use it, we’re going to hold the House. That’s what this data tells us, but we gotta get in action. The point is, to make sure that we’re all on the same page, that we understand the stakes. Here’s the good news: Everything we are doing and everything we’ve talked about doing is incredibly popular.”
Democrats in trouble
Most of the Capitol hill aides think the Republicans are going to take back control. The majority, or 73%, think Republicans will relieve Nancy Pelosi of her speaker’s gavel soon.
The Red Wave only needs a net gain of 5 seats. The GOP has another advantage, they’re raking in the contributions. The fundraising record has been set three months in a row, $42.1 million in cash with no debt. History is on the GOP side as well. The party that controls the White House commonly loses ground in the mid terms.