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We can not assume way too much from a few Chinese news clips. However, there are various tea leaves from the past couple of days leading us to conclude that, at worst, China is pivoting away from Putin’s Russia on the war towards a more neutral stance. A few samples:
— On Monday, the Chinese ambassador to Ukraine met with authorities in Lviv to claim that China “will respect the path chosen by Ukrainians because this is the sovereign right of every nation.” He likewise promised Chinese aid with Ukrainian economic development after the battle.
— The very same day, Jake Sullivan held “intense” talks for seven hours with a Chinese authorities in Rome cautioning Beijing of consequences if it rescued Russia’s battle in Ukraine by providing Putin with financial and also army help.
— Last evening, a German paper reported that the Russian Foreign Minister was en route to China for a check out when his airplane mysteriously returned making an abrupt about-face back to Russia. It’s uncertain why, but some hypothesize that Chinese authorities might have decided they didn’t desire the poor optics of meeting with him presently.
— This morning, the White House revealed that Biden will talk with Xi Jinping straight tomorrow regarding the possibility of China giving Russia aid.
— Today, an adjustment has been identified in the tone of Chinese media’s protection of the battle. CGTN is a state-run network with chapters in the west, a type of Chinese variation of RT. They ran several segments regarding Ukrainian civilians being killed within the previous 24 hours and made no bones regarding Russia’s responsibility for the deaths..
Residents and emergency workers at the site of a badly bombed residential building in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv ran for cover as Russian jets flew over and dropped bombs nearby, according to Reuters. pic.twitter.com/1EPw8dKdeU
— CGTN America (@cgtnamerica) March 17, 2022
CGTN also flagged Secretary of State Tony Blinken’s statement this afternoon accusing Russia of war crimes:
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday the State Department is investigating possible war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/F2o4VSGhg0
— CGTN America (@cgtnamerica) March 17, 2022
Maybe this is a small concession from Beijing to the U.S., adding some anti-Russia coverage to Chinese media that’s aimed at a western audience while quietly maintaining a strict pro-Russia line in domestic Chinese media.
Perhaps this is a small sign of rapprochement from the CCP in Beijing to the U.S., a tiny conceit to add some anti-Russia coverage to Chinese media that’s aimed at a western audience while quietly keeping a much more strict pro-Russia line in domestic Chinese media.
But surprisingly no, apparently the broadcasts back home have taken a turn as well, a departure from the typically two-face approach we’ve seen from Chinese State Media.
guys, the shift on Ukraine has been visible in core Chinese media too – and in propaganda instructions – it's not just a foreign facing thing https://t.co/Nzrntqqj3S
— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) March 17, 2022
Twitter’s translation of the Chinese tweet linked by Palmer reads partially, “CCTV suddenly stopped being the sounding board for the Russian army, and became the sounding box for the Ukrainian army, and found that Russia was about to end? Is Sino-Russian relationship as strong as a rock made in China?”
Has the “no limits” partnership hit a limit already, just six weeks after it was declared?
If Russia’s war were going well, if COVID were in full retreat, Xi might be in a position to hang up on Biden and give Putin whatever he needs. But the war isn’t going well. And COVID not only isn’t in retreat, it’s threatening China to a degree not seen there since early 2020. The new lockdowns are a drag on the Chinese economy and a major outbreak that races out of control would threaten the Chinese health-care system.
Shanghai is really on edge right now over accelerating Covid cases; I haven’t seen everyone this nervous since February 2020… a lot of rumors are swirling amidst the confirmed news that schools are now closed, flights are being diverted, and public events are getting canceled
— Dan Wang (@danwwang) March 11, 2022
In Beijing everyone is talking about it too, and already meetings and concerts are being cancelled or transferred to video. I've been told that two of my physical presentations next week must go online because attendees will not be allowed into the buildings. https://t.co/J3c34TLJaj
— Michael Pettis (@michaelxpettis) March 11, 2022
Calling this now: Omicron breaking through in China will be a double whammy for global trade and therefore inflation.
China just declared a 7-day lockdown in Shenzhen — home of one of the world's largest ports.https://t.co/5KhOESgbbi
— Christopher Mims 🤌 (@mims) March 13, 2022
While the US Congress is scrambling to prepare sanctions for China if they go all-in with Putin on Ukraine, Xi Jinping may have concluded that this is a bad time to pick a new fight with the entire western world:
Sentiment is rising for so-called secondary sanctions on any country or entity that helps Russia evade sanctions. On Thursday, Republican Senator Marco Rubio introduced a bill specifically aimed at Chinese financial institutions that conduct transactions with Russian entities through any alternative to the SWIFT financial messaging system.
“We cannot allow China to become a safe haven for Russian firms seeking to avoid international sanctions,” Rubio said in a statement. “My bill would make it nearly impossible for Chinese banks to access the U.S. financial system if they choose to transact with Russian banks using Chinese or Russian financial messaging systems.”
Meanwhile, at the UN :
#UPDATE An ambassador tells AFP that Moscow canceled the vote on its "humanitarian" resolution after it failed to secure co-sponsorship of the draft text from China and India pic.twitter.com/o49vhQF1kT
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 17, 2022
If Russia’s war were going well, if COVID were in complete retreat, Xi may be in a position to hang up on Biden and give Putin whatever he requires. The war isn’t going well. And COVID not only isn’t in remission, it’s harmful China to a level not seen there since early 2020. The brand-new lockdowns are a drag on the Chinese economic situation and a major outbreak that races out of hand would intimidate the Chinese healthcare system.
Vladimir Putin has few close friends left. He might have shed one more, his crucial one, in the following 24 hours.
We’ll see what Xi has to say to Biden tomorrow. Will he take the advice of that Shanghai think tank?, Taking the opportunity to start fixing relationships with the west while pulling away from a Russia that’s become a pariah state?
H/T Hot Air
