It makes complete sense. A person might vote Dem for years because it’s what they’ve always done. Maybe they’re bullied or shamed into voting Democrat. But when policies start hitting people in the bank account and cause multiple headaches, that person may be motivated to look at the Republican party. In that respect, Biden has been a great incentive for people to leave the Democrat party.
Dem support has dropped
A Gallup poll early in 2021 revealed 49 percent of people either supported or leaned Democrat, while 40 percent supported or leaned Republican. The numbers are now reversed.
Republicans now enjoy a couple point lead at the end of the year. Republicans have support 47 to 42, a huge shift. This amount of support for Republicans hasn’t been seen in 25 years.
The Dem might start off well
But Biden was put in there for different reasons. Inflation, the Afghanistan withdrawal and COVID being among several things the Democrats were incapable of handling.
The Gallup survey was roughly even between Democrats and Republicans. About 29 supported the Democrat, 27 for Republicans with Independents making up a larger fraction, 49 percent.
Dem support evaporated
Gallup summed up the huge pendulum shift, “In early 2021, Democratic strength reached levels not seen in nearly a decade. By the third quarter, those Democratic gains evaporated as Biden’s job approval declined. The political winds continued to become more favorable to Republicans in the fourth quarter, giving the GOP an advantage over Democrats larger than any they had achieved in more than 25 years.”
House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn is worried. “Bleak, bleak, bleak. There are a lot of base voters not happy. So if you look at the people who are unhappy, the Republicans are never going to be happy, independents who, you know, pick and choose when to be happy, and black people who need Build Back Better and these voting bills in order to be happy. That’s going to have a very low approval rating.”
The Dem strategy has no substance
It’s not just messaging. Matt Gorman is a Republican strategist. “Sometimes you have a messaging problem, and other times you just have a problem. In this situation, [Democrats] just have the latter. No slogan or single policy achievement can turn around a broader environment. There would have to be a seismic shift.”
Mid terms are commonly tough on the party in the White House and this season is nothing different. This time though it’s going to take a lot more to move or keep that needle on the Dem side. Stuart Rothenberg is the senior editor for Inside Elections. “[I]t obviously takes unique circumstances to redirect a midterm election. I don’t know whether there’s anything that’s going to happen that’s so shocking to people, so stunning that it will give the Democrats the ammunition they need to change the election.”
Biden has no credibility
Ken Spain is the former spokesman for the Republican National Congressional Committee. He said the focus should be to just stay the course. “The strategy for Republicans is a pretty simple one: Don’t screw it up. Don’t make yourself the issue and allow the election to be a referendum on Democratic control of Washington.”
Emma Vaughn is a spokeswoman for the Republican National Committee. She said it all points squarely at Biden. “Biden has lost all credibility — he has failed to ‘shut down the virus’ like he promised, pushed Americans out of work with unconstitutional mandates, overseen a rise in crime, presided over skyrocketing prices for everyday goods and promoted trillions more in reckless spending.”
