Democrats

A Lot of House Democrats Are Retiring

Nobody wants to be on the losing team. The irony is the Democrats lost when Biden was installed. Pelosi maybe unseated and retire! Congress will experience new blood, 55 members aren’t running for re-election. That’s six Senators and 49 House members. Out of the House members, 32 are Democrats. The Democrat retirement rate is the highest since 2014. The Republican retirement rate is the second lowest.

Democrats getting out

Ballotpedia confirmed,

“The 55 retiring members include 32 Democrats and 23 Republicans, accounting for 11.9% of the Democratic caucus and 8.8% of the Republican caucus. The 11.9% retirement rate among Democrats is the largest since 2014 when 8.5% of Democrats did not run for re-election. The 8.8% retirement rate among Republicans is the second-lowest since 2014. The only year with a lower retirement rate was 2016 when 8.6% of Republicans retired. Democrats had their lowest retirement rates out of the past five cycles in 2018 and 2020, when 7.4% and 3.4%, respectively, of the caucus did not seek re-election. Republicans had their highest retirement rates out of the past five cycles in those years, with 12.6% of the caucus retiring in 2018 and 11.5% in 2020.”

Pelosi’s margin is thin. If Republicans take Congress back, she’ll retire.

Redistricting will happen

That will favor Republicans. Democrats fear they’ll lose the House in the mid terms. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick said if the elections were held today, they’d lose the House.

Tim Persico is the executive director of the DCCC. He tried to put a good spin on what he sees,

“We are not afraid of this data … We’re not trying to hide this. If [Democrats] use it, we’re going to hold the House. That’s what this data tells us, but we gotta get in action. The point is, to make sure that we’re all on the same page, that we understand the stakes. Here’s the good news: Everything we are doing and everything we’ve talked about doing is incredibly popular.”

A lot of bad news for Democrats

Capitol Hill aides aren’t confident. According to Punchbowl News, most of them, 73%, think Republicans will relieve Speaker Pelosi of her gavel.

Republicans need a gain of five seats to be back in power. They’re flush with cash which is a great help. They’ve set a fundraising record in the past three months, raking in $42.1 million. History is also on the Republican side. The party in power commonly loses 25 House seats during mid terms.

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