We don’t shutdown for the flu that kills thousands every year. This has been media generated panic. The President is smart to be reopening the country. He’s just as shrewd to remind governors that this ball is in their court. Among other reasons, any blame should be placed on each state. The federal government ensures domestic tranquility and protects our border. As much as the media desperately wants to blame the President for anything, it’s really in states’ hands.
A prominent Israeli professor has confirmed what many have quietly thought all along. Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University is on the research and advisory board for Teva, a prominent worldwide pharmaceutical company. His findings suggest the shutdowns were just an excuse to try to crash the economy. COVID19 runs its course, regardless of what governments do.
The professor charted the rates of new infections throughout much of the world – US, UK, Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, Germany, Spain and France. These countries are much like the United States in culture and government. It didn’t matter if the country pursued a severe shutdown like Israel or if the virus was all but ignored such as Sweden. The results were the same. It spiked and receded the same way.
Dr. Ben Isreal spotted identical disease progression. Infections grow dramatically until a peak in the sixth week. By the eighth week, it fades quickly.
The media needs eyes regardless the cost
Isreali shutdown restrictions are such that even leaving to pick up food is not permitted. The only allowed outings are for medical care and work considered essential. Even during Holy Week, worshipers to the Western Wall and Mass observation were all but deserted.
Stockholm, Sweden was a night and day contrast. It was business as usual, no shutdowns. Gatherings of over 50 people were suspended. The disease followed the same trajectory in both places. So why the blackout?
The professor said the virus followed its pattern regardless whether people were locked down or not. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures.” The “expansion (of coronavirus infections) begins exponentially” it “fades quickly after about eight weeks.” Epidemiologists don’t understand the reasoning but that’s the facts.
Models are statistical only
The professor believes these facts – not projections – confirm there’s no need for the shutdowns. So what’s behind it? He thinks it’s all about hysteria. “I think it’s mass hysteria. I have no other way to describe it. 4,500 people die each year from the flu in Israel because of complications, so close the country because of that? No.”
“This appearance of certainty is seductive when the world is desperate to know what lies ahead,” Britta Jewell of Imperial College and her associates stated in their Annals paper. But the IHME model used to predict “rests on the likely incorrect assumption that effects of social distancing policies are the same everywhere.”
Our own hysteria was started by a paranoid Dr. Fauci running to the President with equally crazy predictions from Professor Neil Ferguson of the UK. The original predicted number has shrunk by the projections of the University of Washington model Dr. Fauci is now relying on. The estimates of deaths now equals a bad flu year, 61,000. Ferguson has eased his projected death toll in the UK to 20,000, only 4% of his prediction.
Some people shouldn’t be listened to
Professor Neil Ferguson predicted 150,000 lives would be lost to mad cow disease. That’s a wildly inflated number from what the death toll was, only 177. Why is he given any credibility? Lives and livelihoods have been ruined over this. Responsible entities need to lawyer up. Laws will need to be passed to keep the class action lawsuits on the horizon from being thought of.